We’re halfway through the NFL season, and it’s just been full of surprises so far. Some of the biggest shocks have been at the Quarterback position. Whether it’s Jalen Hurts as a legit MVP candidate when people doubted he’d even be the QB by next season, Tua Tagovailoa steering off of the draft bust path and onto the franchise QB path, or Geno Smith coming out of absolutely nowhere, 9 years after he was drafted, and now 32 years old, and putting the Seahawks at the top of their division. Whoever is writing the script for the NFL this year has clearly lost their mind, and while we’re all focusing on the unexpected people that are leading the pack, the biggest surprise of the season might just be who’s MISSING from the top of the league. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are 3-5 to start the season. Tom Brady is under .500 by two games for the FIRST TIME IN TWENTY THREE YEARS. The GOAT and his team are struggling, and fingers are starting to be pointed at him. And it makes sense why Brady is taking most of the heat. Brady’s 45 years old, going through a divorce, and has already retired once. On paper, he’s the most sensible scapeGOAT (ha get it), and the NFL world is wondering if his age has finally caught up to him.
But is he really to blame?
I’m reading the Brady narratives going around online right now, but I just can’t buy into them. And boy do I want to. As a Bills fan that has been tormented by that man for literally my entire life, there’s nothing I want more than to see Brady go out like a buster. But as a football fan, I’m just not convinced that he’s the problem on this Buccaneers team. So let’s try and figure this out. Has Tom Brady finally lost his race against father time? Or is there something else going on in Tampa Bay?
First let’s take a look at the numbers. The Buccaneers Defense allows 18.6 Points Per Game, which is good for 6th in the league. With a number that low, the offense shouldn’t have to produce much to win games, right? Unfortunately, that’s where the Bucs fall short. They’re boasting a meager 18.3 Points Per Game on the scoring side, making them the 8th worst in the league offensively by that metric. They’re dead last in rushing touchdowns with 3, and in the bottom half of the league for passing touchdowns with 9. They are also 21st in the league in Total Yards Per Game, with 332.9. There’s an issue on offense, no doubt about it, and most of the time bad offense can be attributed to bad QB play. For reference, the team directly above the Bucs in Yards Per Game is the New England Patriots with their Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe tandem of mediocrity. Directly below, is the Commanders with the Wentz/Heinicke tandem of worse than mediocrity. Other QBs around this range include names such as Zach Wilson, Marcus Mariota, and Daniel Jones. Not exactly in great company, Tom. So most of the teams around the Bucs in Yards Per Game have less-than-ideal quarterbacks leading them. I guess it’s fair to assume that the same is happening in Tampa Bay, but just to be sure, let’s break these stats down just a little more. Of those 332.9 Yards Per Game, only 61.9 come from the run, with the other 283.4 coming from the pass. These are good for 32nd and 6th in the league respectively.
But hey, that just seems to me like they don’t run the ball much, right? Well that’s true. They run the ball at the lowest rate in the league. But it’s not by much. For comparison’s sake, just two spots above the Bucs in rushing attempts per game are the Las Vegas Raiders. They run the ball on average 1.76 more times per game than the Bucs, yet the difference in rushing yards per game is massive. The Raiders are at 115.6, meaning they only run the ball 2 more times per game, but average over 50 more yards on the ground. How is this possible? The difference is what they’re doing with those touches. The Raiders are 5th in the league in Yards Per Carry with 5.2, to the Buccaneers’ dead last 3.0. The run game in Tampa Bay is horrible by every metric imaginable.
What do we make of this? Well for starters, the Buccaneers run game was a lot more active last year, they averaged over a full yard more per carry, and ran the ball more often than they do now. They averaged a touchdown per game on the ground last season compared to the less than half a touchdown per game the 2022 team averages. To summarize, in 2021 the pass was still the obvious focal point of the Tampa offense, but when they needed to run the ball, there was still hope. This year it might as well be a wasted down. So Brady’s not getting any help at all on the ground, whatever. He’s still the GOAT, right? And as such, he should be able to cover for his run game in the air. Well, he kind of does. As I previously mentioned, the pass offense is actually pretty good at moving the ball. They’re 6th in Pass Yards Per Game, and it’s not just because of the metric fuckton of pass attempts they have, they’ve actually been pretty damn efficient as well. Brady is completing his passes 65.9% of the time, good for the 5th best in his entire 23 year career. Brady also is turning the ball over the least he ever has. Yes they’re passing the ball more, but they’re also passing it well.
So Brady is moving the ball down the field as well as he ever has. But unfortunately none of that matters because where they struggle is the most important part of football. They can’t find the endzone. Remember a paragraph ago when I said Brady’s turning the ball over at the lowest rate of his career? Well the opposite is true as well, as he’s throwing touchdowns at the lowest rate of his career as well. I struggled for a bit trying to figure out what’s going on here, and I think I’ve cracked it. First off, the Buccaneers aren’t a big play touchdown team. Or at least, this year they aren’t. Last year, 33% of both their passing and rushing TD’s came from outside of the redzone. This year they’ve scored exactly one time from outside of the red zone (not counting return/defense TDs for obvious reasons). They haven’t been able to break off big play TD’s at all, and it’s hurting them badly.
So what’s causing this? Personally, I’m attributing a lot of it to the run game. The Buccaneers run has been awful, and anyone who’s ever played football or even just a game of Madden understands how much easier it is to defend the pass when you know the run is not a threat. Sure, opposing defenses let Brady rack up yards, but they’re preventing the big play and limiting scoring to the red zone only. I do think the Buccaneers backfield lacks talent, but I actually think we have to look past them for the run game failures, and take a look at coach Todd Bowles. Historically, Bowles has run an abysmal offense and an immaculate defense, and that’s exactly what’s happening in Tampa Bay. A running back corps that averaged 4.1 YPC last year and arguably improved in the offseason is now the worst unit in the league, and I’m not convinced that Leonard Fournette was just sapped of his talent overnight. The only major change that has happened to this team that makes sense to me is the Head Coach. Bowles is fantastic on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s struggled to get it done on offense. The O-Line has been banged up as well which could very well be affecting the run, but I think the problem runs far deeper than just some hurt players.
I dream of the day that Tom Brady steps onto the field and sucks at football. When the Bucs started struggling to begin the year, I even hoped that this was the year it happened. But as much as I want to, it’s not fair to blame the Buccaneers struggles on Brady. It’s easy to buy into Brady’s regression when you look at all the context surrounding him this season, the age, the divorce, how pissed he looks in every game. But when you turn the screen off and look at the numbers, Brady’s actually been impressive in most aspects of the game. Father Time may yet win the race against Tom Brady, but for now, it looks like the GOAT has a leg up on him.